As of this morning, the captain of the grounded Italian cruise ship, Francesco Schettino, maintains that the rock he struck “is not on any nautical chart.”
Um… I doubt it.
He went aground just off the coast of Italy. You are probably familiar with it. It’s the country that’s in the middle of the Mediterranean Sea. It’s shaped like a boot. These would be the most travelled, surveyed, and charted waters in the world. There is a tiny, tiny possibility that he is right. Teeny-tiny. This was a submerged reef big and strong enough to put a 50 meter hole in the side of a cruise ship. That’s not a tiny submerged stalagmite; It’s a big freaking reef. It’ possible the human navigators and local fisherman have missed finding this reef in the busiest seaway in the world for the past 2,000 years. Possible. Just not too likely. Like, really, really unlikely. Like, buy a lottery ticket unlikely.
My guess is that he commanded a change in passage plan (something that he has apparently done before). His officers then erred and sailed too close to land and put the ship aground. The captain’s first instinct was, “This is not possible.” He will find, however, that it is not only possible but, due to the frailty of human kind, inevitable.
This relates to a recent change in my perspective on Nuclear Power. At the core of human endeavour is the human mind which will, ultimately, err. It may be an error based on a lack of knowledge or foresight (“Despite my best efforts I did not foresee all the possibilities.”). Or it may be an error in judgement (“I was badly hung-over and I dozed off and didn’t notice the alarm when it went off.”). Whatever the case, human beings will eventually screw it up. Take all the precautions that you want but you should consider and be prepared for the worst case scenario because the worst case will happen. Maybe not in my lifetime or yours. But eventually it will. I am a proponent of Nuclear Power. And I accept that Chernobyl and Fukishima are inevitable outcomes of human endeavour.
When you err, though, have the decency to take responsibility.
Interesting comment on nuclear.
ReplyDeleteYou might find my novel interesting, since it deals with the same issues. "Rad Decision" is a look at the people, politics and technology of nuclear power based on my decades in the US atomic fun industry. The plant involved and the climatic event bear some simularities to Fukushima. It is free online, no advertisements or sponsors - just google the title or go to my homepage. The book has had limited media exposure (I messed up and spent my time working and writing instead of becoming an "expert") but readers seem to like it per the homepage comments.